How long will APC rule?

For a party that emerged through a marvellous merger just two years ago and on the verge of ruling-party status at the federal level, it may seem premature to contemplate the life expectancy of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the context of power. But such reflection is timely ahead of the inauguration of the incoming Muhammadu Buhari presidency on May 29, particularly because of the pronouncements on the party’s lifespan by political prophets.

In other words, against the background of the 16-year governmental lifespan of the outgoing Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) from 1999 to 2015, can the APC rule for a longer period? It is thought-provoking that President Goodluck Jonathan, who is heading for the exit following a stunning electoral defeat, expressed optimism about his party’s chances of regaining power at the centre in 2019. Jonathan said to party members after receiving the report of the PDP Presidential Campaign Organisation at Aso Villa, Abuja: “We must continue to be united as a party. And continue to work hard so that as we move towards subsequent elections in 2019 and 2023, PDP will come out stronger.”

Also, PDP National Publicity Secretary Olisa Metuh said: “In this regard, all members who have reports, grievances and suggestions on the way forward should transmit same to the Post-Election Review Committee for an all-inclusive roadmap in the overall effort to regain power in 2019.”

It is possible that Jonathan’s confidence merely reflected ostrichism and a conscious denial of his party’s decline and fall, which is understandable because overexcited stalwarts had predicted 60 years of PDP rule.  However, perhaps things are not so simplistic, considering the perspective of the Minister of National Planning, Dr. Abubakar Suleiman. In an interview, Suleiman said of APC: “I give the party just one year, it will fizzle out. APC does not have what it takes to stay in power for 16 years or more as the PDP did.” He added: “How will Atiku, Tinubu, Obasanjo and others work together for long? It cannot last for long.  They do not have anything in common. Many of the people in APC have come together for selfish interests and when the expectations are dashed by Buhari’s government, they will scatter.”

This pessimism is not only projected by PDP hierarchs, it is promoted with curious enthusiasm. However, it is noteworthy that this viewpoint, which predated the general elections and  dates back to the merger talks leading to the formation of APC, was flawed by the constitution of the party against all odds as well its triumph at the polls. APC’s record-setting performance has been described as “the first time in Nigeria’s political history that an opposition political party unseated a governing party in a general election and one in which power will transfer peacefully from one political party to another.”  Remarkably, APC also won the majority of seats in the Senate and the House of Representatives in the historic 2015 elections. Apart from winning the presidential poll, the APC is in the saddle in 22 states, the PDP in 13 and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) in one.

Interestingly, the diversity of forces that formed APC was responsible for the ouster of PDP. It was a demonstration of the potency of collaboration that the product of the combination of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), was sufficiently muscular to overcome the PDP.

However, APC cannot afford the luxury of resting on its laurels; and this is why the party must take the prophecies of doom seriously. The glory of its celebrated election victory will not be sufficient for future feats.  For a party that earned the votes of the electorate based on its campaign for change, APC itself will need to change from a vote-seeking party to a vote-attracting party, meaning that being in power will demand a new imagination.

There is no doubt that the end of the PDP era has created great public expectations, and all eyes will be on APC to live up to expectations. When power formally changes hands, it would be expected that the actions of APC will begin to speak louder than its words. Ultimately, that is the challenge of change.

It is interesting to note that the PDP prophets have concentrated on APC’s alleged incapacity to survive, and glossed over the PDP’s sinking ship. One significant voice highlighted the necessity for soul-searching. Senate President David Mark was quoted as saying that the party was “already hemorrhaging.” Mark warned: “Unless we halt the bleeding and find the necessary therapy, we may be heading for the final burial of the party. The party is already comatose and we should do all we can to resuscitate the party rather than this unnecessary rancour and buck passing.”

Now, given the vigour of APC, contrasted with the PDP’s loss of vitality, it should be easy to guess which of the two parties may slump when the going gets tough. The two parties will be grappling with unfamiliar roles. Federal power is new to APC, just as opposition politics is strange to PDP. Will it be easier for APC to master its new status than for PDP to manage its reduced station?

Aware of the picture, APC’s National Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, observed that PDP “has neither the capacity nor the commitment to be in the opposition.” Mohammed declared that an opposition party needs to be “creative, knowledgeable, resourceful and above all credible,” adding, “It is not by cheap blackmail.”  Mohammed was also quoted as saying: “This is why we wish to extend to the National Working Committee of the PDP a free orientation, just as we have offered the party’s spokesman a free crash course on how to be an opposition party spokesman. The theme of the orientation will be ‘transiting from the ruling party to an opposition party’.”

It remains to be seen how 2015 to 2019 will play out, how quickly and effectively APC can deliver the desired change to cement its position, and how speedily PDP can recover from its post-election trauma to renew and reposition itself for the future.  How long will APC rule? Or how soon will PDP return?